The Future of Food

We can expect extremely varied condition changes in North America and worldwide. By itself, an increase in partial pressure of carbon dioxide would result in a modest yield increase, but with a global predicted decrease in precipitation and changes in temperature, yields will likely not follow a solely positive trend. Crop response depends on physiology as well as climatic conditions, so corn and wheat could potentially change variably in different regions. For example, corn yield in the Mountain, Pacific, and Southern Plains regions of the U.S. is projected to increase, while yields in regions like the Lake States and the Southeast will decrease sharply (Malcom et al).
Altered physiological factors are reducing crop yields and changing optimum growing ranges for corn and wheat. Specifically in the United States, this means that millions of acres of monocultures will either fall short in productivity or be unsuccessful in the regions currently relying on agricultural exports for their economy. Here are just a few of the risks posed to humans and the environment as a result of threatened corn and wheat crops:

• Increased global hunger as agricultural trade suffers and exports of commodity crops decrease
• Rising food prices within the United States and around the world as agricultural surplus diminishes
• Economic losses for farmers and states whose main industry is agriculture
• More soil degradation and pollution as artificial inputs (fertilizers & pesticides) increase
• Exacerbated climate changes from an increase in fossil fuel use and additions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases to the atmosphere
• Developments in technology and genetic modification to escape natural limitations on crops

Source: "One Finger Typing"

The exact ramifications of climate change are still unknown, and only projections are possible based on current trends. One thing is for certain: the conditions and locations that are ideal for crop production will be altered, and continuing with the current massive industrialized system is only exacerbating the positive feedback loop. An increase in energy and technology would uphold crop outputs in the short-term, but in the face of long-term climate changes, it will be necessary to adopt an altered system of food production.
A smaller-scale, non-industrial system is one option that diversifies crop types to lower risks, reduces energy inputs, and is more resilient to extreme conditions. Supporting local and/or organic food systems is one way for consumers to slow their contributions to the industrial system's feedback. Generally, these alternative systems are defined by at least one of the following parameters:

• Smaller-scale production
• Biologically diverse; polycultures
• Low use of pesticides and herbicides
• Less machinery used for production; less fossil fuel inputs
• Shorter distances traveled to market
• Utilization of a closed-loop system; sources of productivity from within the growing system (ex. animal husbandry and manure fertilization)
• More efficient irrigation techniques

Climate change certainly poses great threats to our current agricultural system, and by breaking the vicious cycle of climate change contributions through agriculture, we can begin to slow changes that would put our food security at risk.